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Joined 3 years ago
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Cake day: June 14th, 2023

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  • Absolutely. The quality drop on discussions was wild. I used to spend hours a week discussing on reddit. Now despite still using it to keep up to date on various topics, I rarely comment.

    The post quality dropped quite a bit as well at that time. But that has always been a steady “eternal September” type of decline so it’s harder to isolate the cause.

    Reddit will become less and less useful to the AI giants for training if it doesn’t contain new and ongoing deep communication like it once did.



  • They were initially based on research into prediction markets. However that research, while interesting, certainly wasn’t able to …predict… what would happen when highly funded commercial enterprises with massive marketing budgets started pushing them right in the middle of an already growing gambling epidemic.

    So, yes, they are now fully gambling apps with little predictive value.

    One of the great ironies of these apps is that people are actively demanding they act more like gambling and less like prediction markets. For example, prediction markets require insiders to participate to function effectively. But the people using these apps, and people who hate these apps alike want to ban insiders from using them to keep them “fair”. This pushes the apps even further from prediction and toward gambling.




  • The prize is indeed an unfortunate example. One of the reasons Perelman refused the prize is he felt Hamilton had done more than him in getting toward Poincare.

    That said, I think your initial point requires some more nuance. Knowledge can only exist meaningfully if there is someone to understand it. As social creatures, people tend to celebrate those who contribute to society.

    So, if someone like Sam Altman comes along and takes all the credit for a discovery, it does have an effect on the people who might have been socially motivated to work toward a discovery.

    Ultimately this is selfish behavior. And selfishness is antithetical to civil society. And civil society is what has allowed knowledge to flow freely.